纸牌塔游戏
作者 | ThetaGo
美国作家马克·吐温曾说：“不是那些你不知道的东西将置你于死地，而是那些你深信不疑却不是真的的东西。”
在美国成为半个世纪以来全球性战争的最大胜利者、美式和平随之成为战后混乱世界新秩序的历史背景下，美元成为过去70年的主导货币是一件再自然不过的事情。被全世界人民广泛接受、币值几乎不可能减少的美元给美元持有者带来了绝对的信心，这种信心即使在美元1971年与黄金脱钩，成为完全没有黄金作为价值支撑的纯法币之后，也依然坚实有力。
但如果今天的美国和20世纪40年代末那个意气风发的，在半个世纪中一越成为世界第一强国的美国相去甚远，以至于今天依旧怀着对美元无可置疑的信心，但是发现这却“不是真的”了呢？一个很大的变化是随着美国政府成为“月光族”并负债累累，美国的财政处境已大不如前。经年累月的“赤字预算”已经使美国政府2016年九月在只有3.5万亿资产的情况下就欠下了22.8万亿债务。
和其他各国政府一样，美国政府有对她的公民和企业征税的能力。然而，加税是一种时常招致民怨和企业向海外流失的政治决策，这样做并不容易。减轻企业税负也是为特朗普吸引选票使其赢得大选的重要承诺之一（这一点可以从特朗普当选后道琼斯指数进一步攀升可以看出，这次上涨可以部分归功于特朗普减税方案对企业经营状况进而对经济的提振作用），所以，我们有理由相信在特朗普的任期内，美国政府入不敷出的情况将变得更加严重。
当然，我们不能忘记美国政府还有两个强有力的方法来弥补亏空，为美国国债和美元的持有者提供安慰。
一种方法是印更多的美元来清偿债务。毕竟美元已经没有了任何硬通货作为保障，美国政府在增加美元供给上并不受约束。只要世界人民对美元的需求有相匹配的增长，那美国政府要做的就只是按下印钞机的启动按钮，债务就会在愉悦的印钞声中消失（这就是为什么强势美元对于美国至高无上的霸权地位如此重要）。但这并不意味着美国政府可以如此任性地打开印钞机，这样做带来的严重负面影响甚至可能超过加税。如果美国政府大幅增发基础货币，那么以美元计价的资产价值将被大大稀释，然后就进入到了马克·吐温所说的“不是真的”的时刻，使得美元持有者大量转投外币资产或金银，这将显著推高美元利率，最终把美国吸进恶性通货膨胀的漩涡中。
换句话说，尽管美国政府手里解决债务问题的遥控器上有印钞、继续发债两个按钮，然而除非市场对美元存在绝对需求，这两个按钮都很难按下。当两个按钮都失灵的时候，美元时代也就走到了尽头。
美元在今天走到了一个十分敏感的境地，尽管基础因素（财政状况）等为我们提供了充分的理由抛弃美元，市场却依然坚定地为美元站队。
那么什么将成为“不是真的”的那一刻到来的导火索呢？或许利率的升高将是其中一种。美国政府已经背负了对公众的14万亿和对养老金在内的政府账户的5万亿债务。并且在2016财年，对公众的债务吃掉了年度预算的6%，达到2640亿美元，这2640亿美元仅仅用来支付利息。但是2640亿仅仅是在14万亿债务平均年化利率1.89%的情况下得出的数字。意味着即使我们假定债务规模保持不变（实际上它每年都会变得更多），利率在今后几年再上涨3%时，利息开支就将达到美国M2规模的4.89%，6850亿美元，此时仅仅为了支付利息就用掉了联邦政府年度预算的16%。特朗普的减税计划只会使得利息成本在联邦预算中占比越来越高，更加无法回避。
同时，如果越来越大的蛋糕被偿付债务利息挤占，整个财政系统终将有一天难以为继。一旦付息停止带来违约，或是养老金和医疗的资源被利息吃光，整个国家将哀鸿遍野。
当然，美国并不是所有债务都是浮动利率或是短期的（短期内更高的利率并不会增加这部分债务的付息压力），同时美国民众还可以期待上帝和时间会安排好这一切。不过投资者们将足够聪明，能够看出整个系统的脆弱性，在债务付息规模真的无法处理、“然而这并不正确的时刻”来临前用脚投票，抛弃美国国债和美元，推倒这座美元搭成的脆弱“纸牌塔”。
那么3%甚至更高的利率是否可能呢？历史上看，美国的短期利率在接近4%或是5%这个水平，最高时达到10%的利率。而现在仅仅是1.5%，并有升高趋势。或许“然而这并不正确的时刻”将比我们所有人想的都要更早降临。
图表来源：美国财政部
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目标：这最后一篇文章将回答这样一个问题，作为一种法定货币（除了对美国政府的信念以外其价值不被任何东西所保障）的美元，在美国政府背负巨额债务的现状下，是否能够长期保有价值。它将揭示出利率上升将是动摇美元地位一个关键的潜在催化剂。
免责声明：文章为理悦CEMA“资本市场”平台独家稿件，文章内容系作者个人观点，不代表平台观点。
版权声明：未经授权，不得转载，否则将追究法律责任。
系列文章回顾
【市场说 | Market Voices】钱和货币 (中文|English)
【市场说 | Market Voices】债务和美国政府（中文|English）
【市场说 | Market Voices】美国国债=世界上最安全的金融资产？（中文|English）
作者 | ThetaGo
翻译 | AgainBot
Card-pyramids Game
By ThetaGo
The American writer Mark Twain is credited with saying “It's not what you don't know that kills you, it's what you know for sure that ain't true.”
Ever since Pax Americana started at end of 1940s, when US came out as the victor of half century of global wars and ensuing turmoil, United States Dollar (USD) for the last 70 years was the sure thing. Accepted everywhere and highly unlikely to fall in value, the faith in USD was so absolute that even when USD became a pure fiat currency in 1971, with zero gold to back the USD, the whole world still had no problem with keep trusting the USD.
But what if US changed so much from those triumphant days of late 1940s that the unquestionable faith in USD just “ain’t true” anymore? One large change has been the status of the US fiscal situation, with US government spending more each year than it collects taxes for. Years of“deficit budget”has led to US government owing USD 22.8 trillion with only USD 3.5 trillion of assets, as of September 2016.
As with any government, US has the ability to tax its citizens and corporations. However, such action is a political decision and often leads to very unhappy citizens and exit of businesses, it is not very easy to do. Cutting taxes for businesses was one of the big initiatives of Trump to win the election (see the further Dow Jones hike after Trump won the election that can partly attributed to the tax cut plan to boost business and hence the economy?). So we shall expect to see a widening gap, rather than a narrowing one, between tax revenue and spending expansion during Trump administration.
Now of course, not included in the numbers are two powerful methods US government has to fund this gap which provides comfort to all those holding onto to US Treasury bonds as well as USD.
One method is to print more USD to meet its obligations. After all, without any hard assets to back the USD, there is no constraint in increasing the supply of USD. US government can simply print away its obligations, provide there is a parallel increase in the demand of USD (see the importance of a strong dollar to the sustainability of the US supremacy?). However, this action is not without severe side effects, perhaps even more severe than increasing taxes. If the US government were to increase the money base so much that the value of the assets in US gets diluted substantially, then it would definitely be a “it ain’t true” moment, leading to massive selling of USD versus other currencies and gold / silver, which will trigger a substantial increase in USD interest rates, ultimately, beginning a spiral down toward hyperinflation.
In other words, although there are two powerful options for the US government to meet its obligations, both of them are not likely unless there is an absolute need, because if neither of them are enacted it will certainly mean the end of the USD era.
We are in quite a sensitive moment in the history of USD. Despite plenty of fundamental (fiscal) reasons why USD should not be trusted at all, there continues to be an absolute trust in the USD.
So what could potentially be a trigger which can lead to a “it ain’t true” moment? Increase in interest rate may be one. The outstanding US debt owe to the public is more than USD 14 trillion plus over USD 5 trillion it owes to itself (government pension funds, etc.).
And servicing the debt owe to the public in FY2016 costed 6% of the annual budget or USD 264 billion. That’s USD 264 billion spent every year just to service debt纸牌塔. But USD 264 billion only costs on average1.89% per annumof USD 14 trillion. Meaning that if interest rate was to be increased by 3% in the next couple years, assuming the debt level is similar (it could be much more as it grows every year), that results in paying 4.89% on USD trillion or USD 685 billion or 16% of annual budget just to service debt. Trump tax cut plan can only make this interest payment portion looms larger and larger in the federal budget.
And If a significant portion of the annual budget goes to service outstanding debt, at some point the whole system no longer works. Either servicing of debt stops, leading to default, or the social benefit programs like pensions and medical care will decrease sharply leading to riots in the street.
Of course, not all US debt is floating rate nor is it in short term, thus increase in interest rate will not impact the debt service amount, and there is a time buffer. However, investors are smart enough to figure this out and will not wait until the debt service amount is out of hand to start and have that “it ain’t true moment” and exit US Treasury and the USD.
If a 3% or more increase in interest rate possible? Historically, short term US interest rate is close to 4% p.a. or 5% p.a. with the maximum at 10% p.a.. Currently we are at 1.5%, and posed to go higher. Maybe the “it ain’t true moment” is closer than we all think.
source of charts: US Department of the Treasury
https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/fsreports/rpt/finrep/fr/16frusg/01112017FR_(Final).pdf
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Goal: this last one is about how with USD as a fiat currency, backed by nothing but faith in US government, and with US government's huge debt / deficit income statement, can USD be sustainable. This article will hint at interest rate increasing as one of the key potential catalysts to shake USD.
Disclaimer: The views expressed on “Capital Markets” platform are of the contributing authors and not necessarily those of CEMA. All rights reserved.
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